Calculating UCF football wins needed for College Football Playoff at-large bid

UCF is entering their second year in the Big 12 and they are hoping to make a big step forward from their 2023 season. The Knights won just six games in 2023 and four of their losses were by one possession. They were the only newcomer last season to be bowl-eligible, but the difference between six wins and 10 wins could have been the difference between a Big 12 Championships and just a bowl game.

Now in 2024, the Knights are predicted to finish the season ranked eighth in the Big 12 according to the Big 12 Preseason Media Polls. They were projected to finish eighth in 2023 as well and feel short of that prediction. Now in 2024, the Knights are hoping to improve and finish above that prediction this season.

A Big 12 title is obviously the goal, but a College Football Playoff appearance is the ultimate goal to be able to compete for a National Championship. So with the College Football Playoff expanding to 12 teams this year, the Knights don't necessarily have to have a Big 12 title for their ticket to the Playoff. The five power conferences will have an automatic bid and the next seven best teams will fill out the 12-team playoff.

So how many wins does UCF need without a Big 12 Championship in order to make it to the College Football Playoff.

According to the graphic above, UCF needs 11 wins in the season in order to make it without a conference title. Wth a tough schedule in 2024, the Knights will have a lot of work ahead of them to get to 11 wins.

Where will the 11 wins for UCF come from in 2024?

With a tough 2024 schedule, UCF will have to win the games that are easy wins. There are some that the Knights are easily the best team and shouldn't have trouble against their opponents.

UCF's first two games of the season against New Hampshire and Sam Houston will be at the Bounce House and if UCF can't win those games, the season will be lost altogether. Their last non-conference game is against UF in October and that one could be tough, it is in the Swamp and it will be the first matchup of a three-game series for years to come. However, with how UF has looked the past few seasons, UCF can most likely walk out of the Swamp with a win.

Now onto conference play. There are four Big 12 games that the Knights should be heavily favored in and win without too much trouble. Those are the games against Colorado, which is in Orlando, Cincinnati, BYU, and Arizona State. All but one of those games will be played in Orlando, the one that isn't is the game against Arizona State, but with that program still needing another year or two until they can be competitive, it should be a win for the Knights.

So that puts the Knights at seven wins for the season. There is one game that is really on the fence about whether or not the Knights will win and that is the game against TCU. It is an away game and after what the Horned Frogs did back in 2021, it is hard to count them out in any season. This is a very winnable game and the Knights should be able to bring a big win home in their first Big 12 game this season.

Now onto the games that are going to be the toughest for the Knights. Right now with every game talked about, they would have eight wins on the season, which leaves three more wins needed and four teams to get them against.

The remaining four games would be against Iowa State, West Virginia, Arizona, and Utah. The game against Arizona should be a win because that is the Knights's annual Space Game and so far they are 7-0 in those games. That would mean that the Knights would have to win the games against West Virginia and Iowa State at their home stadiums, which are tough places to play.

UCF plays Utah at the end of the season and it will be at home, but Utah is the team projected to win the conference and they will be a very tough team to play. That is not to say that they can't win the games, but they probably have a better chance against West Virginia and Iowa State to get the wins they need for a playoff appearance.

So it is a tough schedule and UCF has a chance to get 11 wins, but a lot of things have to fall into place.